未来30a凉山州水稻盛夏低温危害风险分析

根据(BCC)气候系统模式第五阶段试验计划(CMIP5-RCP6.0)预测的2006~2050年各格点逐日平均温度,通过订正反演出2021~2050年凉山州各站点逐日平均温度,结合凉山州不同区域水稻抽穗杨花期低温指标,统计了各站水稻盛夏低温频次、水稻安全播种期、安全齐穗期以及安全生长季差,构建了水稻盛夏低温危害风险指数I=exp(Id+ip-2),并以此进行低温危害风险的区域划分,结果表明:(1)凉山州水稻盛夏低温频次为0.1~3.0次/a,在区域和年际之间差异很大;(2)与近30a比较,凉山州水稻安全播种期普遍提前10 d左右,提前最多的达20 d以上。安全齐穗期只有少数站点推迟,大多数站点都有提前的趋势;(3)海拔1 500 m以下为无风险区,1 500~2 000 m的区域为低风险区,2 000~2 500 m为中风险区,2 500~2 600 m为高风险区,分区结果与实际情况相符,为凉山州未来水稻生产布局、应对气候变化的影响提供科学依据。     

近60a长三角地区极端高温事件变化特征及其对城市化的响应

基于长三角地区1951~2014年56个国家级气象站点逐日气温记录资料,通过计算极端高温事件相关指标(极端最高温TXx,极端最低温TNn,高温日数Htd和低温日数Ltd),利用GIS空间分析技术和Mann-Kendall时间趋势分析方法分析了长三角地区近60 a极端高温事件的空间分异特征和时间变化趋势,并探讨了城市化发展对区域极端高温事件时空变异的影响。结果表明:(1)长三角地区极端高温事件指标均表现为一定的上升趋势,极端低温指标(TNn和Ltd)线性变化趋势比极端高温指标(TXx和Htd)更为显著,变化趋势最显著的地区集中在经济和城市化水平较高的城市及周边地区(如上海、杭州等)。(2)极端高温指标(TXx和Htd)多年平均总体表现为南高北低,西高东低的趋势,而极端低温指标中TNn多年平均为由中部向南北两侧降低,Ltd多年平均呈现自中部向南北南侧增多的趋势。(3)从1990~2000到2000~2010年,城市化对极端高温事件的影响增强,快速城市化对北部城市极端高温事件的影响高于南部城市。     

有机肥和化肥配施技术农户采纳意愿影响因素分析——基于苏、浙、皖三省农户调查

为了研究农户采纳有机肥和化肥配施技术意愿的主要影响因素,以风险规避理论为基础,通过建立二元Logistic回归模型,对苏浙皖3省596个农户样本的调研数据进行了分析。研究结果表明:户主年龄和是否有过特殊经历、农业从业人员占比、农户对过量施肥和有机肥的认知、政府是否对农业施肥技术进行过宣传对农户采纳有机肥和化肥配施技术的意愿具有显著影响。据此,提出了提高农户采纳有机肥和化肥配施技术意愿的政策建议:首先,政府应加大对有机肥和化肥配施技术的宣传和推广力度;其次,政府应协助相关组织解决有机肥当前面临的突出问题;最后,政府应完善相关政策的扶持力度。     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Synechococcus</Emphasis> production and grazing loss rates in nearshore tropical waters

Temporal variation of Synechococcus, its production (μ) and grazing loss (g) rates were studied for 2 years at nearshore stations, i.e. Port Dickson and Port Klang along the Straits of Malacca. Synechococcus abundance at Port Dickson (0.3–2.3 × 10⁵ cell ml^?1) was always higher than at Port Klang (0.3–7.1 × 10⁴ cell ml^?1) (p < 0.001). μ ranged up to 0.98 day^?1 (0.51 ± 0.29 day^?1), while g ranged from 0.02 to 0.31 day^?1 (0.15 ± 0.07 day^?1) at Port Klang. At Port Dickson, μ and g averaged 0.47 ± 0.13 day^?1 (0.29–0.82 day^?1) and 0.31 ± 0.14 day^?1 (0.13–0.63 day^?1), respectively. Synechococcus abundance did not correlate with temperature (p > 0.25), but nutrient and light availability were important factors for their distribution. The relationship was modelled as log Synechococcus = 0.37Secchi ? 0.01DIN + 4.52 where light availability (as Secchi disc depth) was a more important determinant. From a two-factorial experiment, nutrients were not significant for Synechococcus growth as in situ nutrient concentrations exceeded the threshold for saturated growth. However, light availability was important and elevated Synechococcus growth rates especially at Port Dickson (F = 5.94, p < 0.05). As for grazing loss rates, they were independent of either nutrients or light intensity (p > 0.30). In nearshore tropical waters, an estimated 69 % of Synechococcus production could be grazed.     

常州市臭氧污染传输路径和潜在源区

利用NCEP全球再分析资料和HYSPLIT4模式,计算了2013—2015年常州市臭氧(O_3)超标日的气流后向轨迹。结合聚类分析方法和常州市PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO2、O_3数据,分析了O_3超标日不同类型气团来源对各污染物浓度的影响,并利用引入权重因子后的潜在污染源贡献函数分析了影响常州市O_3超标的潜在污染源区分布特征。结果表明:常州市O_3超标期间易受到东南和西南方向气流影响,其中从东海和黄海途经浙江东北部、上海、江苏南部等地的东南气流占比达50%以上。自内陆途经黄山-湖州-宜兴到常州的气流对应的O_3平均质量浓度最高,为116μg/m3。自山东经枣庄-宿迁-淮安-泰州-苏州-无锡到常州的气流对应的O_3平均质量浓度最低,为78μg/m3,但该气流对应的SO2和NO2平均值为各聚类中的最高。影响常州市O_3的潜在污染源区主要在常州周边200 km以内的区域,且集中在从南京至上海的长江下游沿线区域和杭州湾区域;其中太湖湖区为重点污染源源区之一。O_3超标日影响常州NO2的潜在污染源区主要集中在江苏南部、浙江东北部和上海3个区域,太湖周边的常州、无锡、苏州和湖州等几个临近城市为潜在的重点污染源区。与影响常州O_3的WPSCF高值区相比,影响NO2的高值区分布范围更大、距离更远。影响常州O_3的潜在污染源区分布,与长江三角洲地区人为源大气污染物的高排放区域较为一致,说明长江三角洲地区的O_3污染与本区域的人为源大气污染物排放有着极为密切的关联。     

Study on the denitrification performance of FexLayOz/activated coke for NH3-SCR and the effect of CO escaped from activated coke at mid-high temperature on catalytic activity

Currently, activated coke is widely used in the removal of multiple pollutants from industrial flue gas. In this paper, a series of novel Fe_xLa_yO_z/AC catalysts was prepared by the incipient wetness impregnation for NH₃-SCR denitrification reaction. The introduction of Fe-La bimetal oxides significantly improved the denitrification performance of activated coke at mid-high temperature, and 4% Fe_0.3La_0.7O_1.5/AC exhibited a superior NO_x conversion efficiency of 90.1% at 400 °C. The catalysts were further characterized by BET, SEM, XRD, Raman, EPR, XPS, FTIR, NH₃-TPD, H₂-TPR, et al., whose results showed that the perovskite-type oxide of LaFeO₃ and oxygen vacancies were produced on the catalysts’ surfaces during roasting. Fe-La doping enhanced the amount of acid sites (mainly Lewis and other stronger acid sites) and the content of multifarious oxygen species, which were beneficial for NO_x removal at mid-high temperature. Moreover, it was investigated that the effect of released CO from activated coke at mid-high temperature on the NO_x removal through the lifetime test, in which it was found that a large amount of CO produced by pyrolysis of activated coke could promote the NO_x removal, and long-term escaping of CO on the activated coke carrier did not have a significant negative impact on catalytic performance. The results of the TG-IR test showed that volatile matter is released from the activated coke while TG results showed that the weight loss rate of 4% Fe_0.3La_0.7O_1.5/AC only was 0.0015~0.007%/min at 300–400 °C. Hence, 4% Fe_0.3La_0.7O_1.5/AC had excellent thermal stability and denitrification performance to be continuously used at mid-high temperature. Finally, the mechanisms were proposed on the basis of experiments and characterization results.

     

Use of historical and contemporary distribution of mammals in China to inform conservation

A systematic understanding of dynamic animal extinction trajectories for different regions in a nation like China is critically important to developing practical conservation strategies. We explored historical and contemporary changes in terrestrial mammalian diversity to determine how diversity in each of the 5 regions in China has changed over time and to examine the conservation potential of these regions. We used records from databases on Pleistocene mammalian fossils and historical distribution records (1175–2020) for Primates (as a case study) to reconstruct evolutionary and historical distribution trajectories of the 11 orders of terrestrial mammals and to predict their prospective survival based on the national conservation strategy applied. The results indicated that since the Pleistocene, 4–5 mammalian orders have been lost in the northeast, 3 in central China, 2 along the coast, and 1 in the northwest. In the southwest, all 11 orders were maintained. Contemporarily, the coast and southwest had the highest and second-highest species densities. The southwest region and southeastern sections of the northwest region were the most historically and contemporarily diverse areas, which suggests that they should be the first priority for protected area (PA) designation. The central and coastal areas should be secondarily prioritized. In these 2 regions, conservation should focus on human coexistence with nature. Less attention should be paid to the PA in the northeast and western northwest because in these areas ecosystems are depauperate and the climate is harsh. Conservation in these areas should focus principally on avoiding further human encroachment on natural areas. Article impact statement: Historical and contemporary patterns of extinction can be a basis for mammalian conservation strategies.     

MCM-41分子筛负载铁铈催化降解甲基橙

采用等体积浸渍法制备了负载型有序介孔Fe-Ce/MCM-41催化剂。研究了该催化剂降解甲基橙的适宜工艺条件,并采用XPS,XRD,TEM技术对该催化剂进行了表征。实验结果表明,该催化剂Fenton氧化降解甲基橙的较适宜工艺条件为:溶液pH 5.0、甲基橙溶液初始质量浓度100 mg/L、催化剂加入量2.0 g/L、H_2O_2浓度20 mmol/L,在此适宜条件下反应120 min时,甲基橙去除率接近100%。表征结果显示:Fe-Ce/MCM-41催化剂主要由铁、铈、氧、碳4种元素组成;铁与铈的摩尔比接近3∶1;铁和铈主要以Fe_3O_4和CeO_2的形态存在于催化剂表面。     

山地丘陵区城市化进程中裸地的时空转化及改造利用的分类研究

针对近年来快速城镇化进程导致城市周边裸地显著增长但对其改造利用率低的问题，以山地丘陵型城市四川省绵阳市为例，采用1999~2017年4期Landsat TM/OLI遥感影像提取研究区包括裸地在内的土地利用/土地覆被变化信息，重点分析了城市化进程中裸地的时空分布及土地转移特征，并以2017年裸地为例探讨了裸地改造利用的分类分区方法。主要结论有： （1）1999~2017年，裸地在研究区最高约占6.34%（2011年），最低3.91%（1999年），年均增长率1.64%，低于同期城市不渗水面的年均增长率9.74%。空间上，裸地主要分布在460~500 m的高程范围和坡度8°以下，沿城乡过渡带、城市开发区以及新修道路两边是裸地主要分布区。（2）1999~2017年，约61.35%的裸地由耕地转化而来，23.58%来源于林地，同期又有51.88%裸地转换为耕地，24.79%转换为城市不渗水面。（3）综合裸地所处区位、地形、景观格局等因素后将2017年裸地划为社区利用型、城市绿化型、城市基础和公共服务设施建设型、都市农业型以及生态修复型5大类改造利用型，以期为研究区城市化进程中的裸地改造利用提供参考依据。     

石漠化治理区小尺度土地利用变化及其驱动机制分析——以花江石漠化治理区为例

研究石漠化治理区小尺度土地利用变化,将有助于深入分析和研究喀斯特地区土地利用变化的时空变化规律、驱动力及资源环境效应。运用逐步多元回归方法,分析石漠化治理区小尺度土地利用变化及其驱动机制。研究表明:(1)2005~2012年,研究区石漠化面积有所减少,由2 824.23 hm2减少到2 777.60 hm2,减少了46.63 hm2,占2005年石漠化面积的1.65%;石漠化程度呈现从重变轻的趋势,无石漠化和中度石漠化面积分别增加12.68%和3.08%,潜在石漠化、轻度石漠化和强度石漠化分别减少5.11%、2.07%和5.24%。其中,稳定型石漠化区域面积最大,占喀斯特面积的95.40%;土地利用变化面积比重为1.15%,土地利用较为稳定。恢复型石漠化区域面积占喀斯特面积的3.95%;土地利用变化面积比重为40.64%,土地利用变化剧烈。退化型石漠化区域面积最小,仅占喀斯特面积的0.65%;土地利用变化面积比重为22.21%,土地利用变化较明显。(2)土地利用变化以园地减少为主要特征,其变化主要由农户的劳动力文化程度变化、劳动力比重变化、本地务工收入变化和外出务工收入变化等4个因子驱动产生。其中,园地变化与本地务工收入变化指数呈显著的正相关关系,回归系数为0.691;与劳动力文化程度变化指数、劳动力比重变化指数和外出务工收入变化指数呈显著的负相关关系,回归系数分别为-0.472、-9.735和-0.443。劳动力比重变化指数是引起园地发生变化的最主要驱动因子。(3)国家因生态文明建设需求而施行退耕还林(草)政策和工业化、城镇化战略,农户因脱贫致富需要而提高文化素质和调整从业行为,分别从宏观和微观两个层面促进石漠化治理区的劳动力转移和产业转型,进而共同驱动了石漠化治理区的土地利用变化。